ABL Season Preview EXTRAVAGANZA

The ABL is back to 8 teams. But is this a good thing? And who are the favorites to grab the Trophy.

The obvious answer is yes. The more complex answer includes seeing into the future, or biting off a piece of Walter Strasser’s ear. Since I’m not a huge black man with facial tattoos and the angel on my left shoulder is getting upset with me, I will take a peek into my crystal ball and come up with something that way.

Bandits:

This season is going to be tough! Tough for all teams. It seems the Bandits won’t have the resources to deliver a blow similar to the one they did, when they came up in ’98 and finished in 3rd. Subsequently following with a run for the Championship the next year, which was stopped by the Dornbirn Indians, and effectively put a halt to the Bandits’ ABL aspirations. It took them 9 years to make their way back up. Fact is: the league has changed a lot since!
Football scores are a thing of the past. Lunatic pitching performances are no longer the norm (complete game wins in 20-19 ballgames, this was not a crazy thing in the Austrian Baseball 1999 edition). Most teams carry 3 to 5 pitchers, who are able to properly concentrate on pitching. And most importantly the dynamic of scoring runs has changed with the wooden bats.

Rafael Elias was one of the top players in 1999. He hit .558 with 8 homeruns and a Slugging Percentage of .993. However his pitching was more valuable to the Bandits. Raking up 11 wins with a 3.668 ERA and 124 Strike-Outs he provided the Bandits with a big edge over other teams. It will be interesting to see how age has affected him.

Look for the Bandits to win some games, but it’s hard to see them having a major impact. Prediction: 5-23.

Cubs:

I like the Cubs! I liked them last year when they were looking playoff bound after a good 4-8 start. This was before they had played the Ravens, who did not win a single game on the field last year. With the best hitter in the ABL in Brett Cumiskey and a top Czech pitcher for the second game, they would’ve made the playoffs (keep in mind all they had to do is beat a 12-12 record). Unfortunately the Cubs are very creative when it comes to finding ways how to lose. Since they had two foreign players on the field (which is not allowed) in the games against Tulln, they lost these games, after having won them on the field. This set an end to their playoff hopes.
The Cubs made some good moves in the off-season. Their pitching is improved. But here’s the tricky part. They are missing the best hitter in the ABL 2007. I don’t see them winning more than 8 games, simply because they didn’t get any offensive help. But I hope they will be in the hunt for as long as possible, this club is on the right track, look for them to improve in years to come!
Prediction: 8-20.

Tigers:

I decided I have to pick against the Tigers, because if I didn’t they wouldn’t have anything to talk about. And boy, they really like to do that. On a more serious note, my concern is that their pitching will have trouble adjusting to the lengthy and more demanding ABL schedule. Franz Haisjackl has had to deal with elbow problems in the past. Haisjackl used to throw way over the top, almost looked like he was going to knock off his hat with his throwing arm. When I saw him pitch last year he came from the side, this will nullify his big breaking ball and cost him on throwing speed. However, if he can locate his pitches with run on his fastball, he should be in business. The question is how long can he keep it up, and can Paul Astl find the strike-zone.
No matter how good their foreigner is, foreign pitching is not a check that only needs to be cashed anymore. What we’ve seen in past years is that even pitchers like Jeremy Herauf for the Wanderers, or more recently Lance Beus for the Dornbirn Indians do not dominate the league like foreign pitching used to. Look for the Tigers to make a big roar, but they won’t get over the 10 win mark. If their pitching holds up and their offence improves they have a very realistic chance of a playoff spot, but it will take some time for their offence to get better and in a league with 28 games any mistake is costly.
Prediction: 9-19.

Vikings:

The Vikings are always a threat. Werner Harrasser arguably the most dominating pitcher of his ERA will always keep them in contention. What will keep them out this year is that they depend too much on a small group of players. Koichi Hida didn’t look sharp in the finals last year, he is moving slower and committing unforced errors, very much out of character for the fabulous Japanese Shortstop. But a gain in age and a loss in practice time will inevitable take its toll. If he’s not able to perform in key-situations the Vikings are in trouble. I have always tightly associated the Vikings’ success with Hida, and his ability to rise up to the moment. I think this will be the year his star will shine a little bit dimmer. But I hope nothing more than for him to prove me wrong.
Prediction: 16-12.

Wanderers:

Going younger is not always a good thing. Hugh Hafner has always been well served by going younger, R. Kelly, maybe not so much. But in the case of the Wanderers going younger is a great thing. It will bring more passion and desire to their dugout, which is exactly what they need after a season like last year. They will have some tough times though. It’s not easy to replace two national-team infielders (Gabler, Machian retired), an ex-national-team player (Amadei, out with back problems) and the MVP (Cichocki) of the ABL 2007. But I think the Wanderers will scrape by with fire and desire to get into the playoffs, giving the Vikings a taste of their own medicine. This could easily go either way, and look for the Tigers and Cubs to have a say in this as well! Prediction: 16-12.

Athletics:

There’s only one reason the A’s should be this high up: Walter Strasser. A 3.657 life-time ERA is impressive. But 568 Strike-outs in 391.1 Innings pitched is plain disgusting. His 34-14 record speaks for itself.

Their line-up is mediocre, and probably terrible if you took out Quirantes and Rabengruber. Which is exactly the problem; Quirantes is hot head and might get in trouble with the umpires in the very first game. And Rabengruber is in trouble anytime he tries to turn a corner. It seems that his knees have improved however, and he has a serious shot at the batting title this year. Beating out Lutz Rauch (runner-up last year) will prove a tough task. The A’s are very vulnerable to injuries. If anything happens to Strasser’s arm or Rabengruber’s knees their chances drastically plummet.
Prediction: 17-11.

Metrostars:

The Metrostars players are improving at about the same rate their facial hair is filling in. A little bit prematurely I picked Hubert Weiser to be the Batting Champion this year in one of our early pre-season games. And surprisingly I will stand by that. He gained in mass, has power to all fields and it’s just plain hard to throw it by him. Lukas Rigele will be fun to watch as well. His amazing wingspan is incredible in itself, but look for him to put it to use at the plate. His power is improved, the question is can he cut down on strike-outs.

Tim Patrick will most likely pitch little to nothing, this will free up a lot of innings for their young prospects. It’s hard to say how this will turn out. But their discipline at the plate and on defence will keep them at the front of the pack.
Prediction: 19-9

Indians:

This just feels like the Indians’ year. Luke Krahe is back. He was a big part of the winning team in 2006. They have a talented youngster in Luke Suters who, if he can pitch, can help them tremendously. They have the crazy field. Rauser seems to be back in action. Plagg, Frick, Salzmann, and Boateng are great players who can carry the offence. Seems there’s no reason not to believe they’ll be the team in 2007, except that: They have the crazy field. Who knows if the Aussie can pitch, and how Rauser’s arm is really holding up. What happened to Dominic Nährer, and how often is Simon Plagg going to miss the bus for road games.
So it is chaos after all? But that’s exactly the way the Indians like it. Look for them to play their games hard and succeed. How far up can they get? The teams will be closer than last year and they will have some room for failure. As always, in a short season luck plays a determining factor and I think the Indians will have it on their side once again this year.
Prediction: 22-6

It’s great to see the ABL with 8 teams that can compete. Only time will tell how this year turns out, and how well the new teams can adjust. It’s going to be exciting to see how the playoff races will unfold. There’s only one thing left to do now: PLAY BALL!